Investors Increasingly Fret Over Global Economy, Markets

Robbie Lawther

21 March 2018

A rising number of investors think the economic and market clouds are darkening, fretful about rising protectionism and other factors. They are taking some risks off the table, according to a monthly survey by , published yesterday.

The number of respondents polled thinking that the global economy is in a late part of the cycle - close to a turn downwards - stood at 74 per cent in March, the highest percentage in the survey’s history.

The threat of a trade war (30 per cent) is top of the risks most commonly cited by investors for the first time since January 2017. This was followed by rise of inflation (23 per cent) and a slowdown in global growth (16 per cent), as causes for worry.

Average cash balances fell slightly, at 4.6 per cent in March, down from 4.7 per cent last month. Around 58 per cent of investors surveyed said global earnings per share will grow by more than 10 per cent in the next 12 months. The survey also found that fund managers are going long on global stocks, banks, and technology, whereas they remain short on bonds and defensives.

Pessimism toward UK equities hits an all-time high as net 42 per cent of investors surveyed say they are underweight within the region.

On Japan, global investors are still overweight Japan equities (net 26 per cent, subtracing those with bearish views from those who are bullish) and, for the first time since 2009, the majority of fund managers do not expect the Japanese yen to depreciate over the next 12 months.

“Cracks in the bull case are starting to emerge, with fund managers citing concerns over trade, stagflation and leverage,” said Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist. “Investors have yet to act on these fears, however, as rates and earnings are keeping the bulls bullish.”

BofAML's March global fund manager survey was conducted from 9 to 15 March; 201 respondents with $579 billion assets under management participated in total.